CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-09-13T10:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-09-13T10:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17733/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a faint partial halo in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and is visible in the NW of STEREO A COR2. The source is a filament eruption north of disk center. It starts around 03:54Z and is visible in SDO AIA 193 as dimming, SDO AIA 171 as moving/opening field lines, and SDO AIA 304 as a filament eruption. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: This IPS signature exhibits a notable change in B-field fluctuations (a jump from 4 to 7 nT in B_tot) and an increase in density from 5 to 12 cm^-3. Field rotations are subsequently observed with corresponding drops in temperature, suggesting the passage of one or more flux ropes. This signature later exhibits a southward B_z component with a peak magnitude of 13 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-17T06:53Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM ****************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 394.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 446.154 Acceleration: 0.0121871 Duration in seconds: 332236.08 Duration in days: 3.8453250 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.01 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 450.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/09/2021 Time: 06:53 UTLead Time: 42.48 hour(s)
Difference: -5.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-09-15T07:00Z
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